https://nikolai-alexander.com/research/ Quantitative studies of financial markets and options, with the data and the numbers behind each result. en Sun, 01 Nov 2026 12:00:00 GMT https://nikolai-alexander.com/research/presidential-cycle-midterms.html https://nikolai-alexander.com/research/presidential-cycle-midterms.html Sun, 01 Nov 2026 12:00:00 GMT Market research Every US presidential cycle since 1949: the 2025-28 cycle is up 27.6% one week before the midterm, the third-highest of 19. From this point, the S&P 500 rose into the end of the following year in all 19 cycles. Strong starts gained less on average, but the link is weak. https://nikolai-alexander.com/research/spy-0dte-touch-vs-close.html https://nikolai-alexander.com/research/spy-0dte-touch-vs-close.html Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT Options research Ten years of SPY trading days, from the open to the close: how often a distance of 0.5%, 1% or 2% is touched, how often the close ends beyond it, and how the VIX, the weekday and the last day of the month change the odds. https://nikolai-alexander.com/research/delta-vs-itm-probability.html https://nikolai-alexander.com/research/delta-vs-itm-probability.html Tue, 13 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT Options research Delta is often read as the chance of an option finishing in the money. The textbook model and four real option chains (SPY, Apple, Broadcom, Bloom Energy) show when that holds and when it does not.