Market research
The Santa Claus rally since 1950: up in 58 of 76 years, but the last three missed
The Santa Claus rally is one of the best-known calendar patterns in the stock market: the S&P 500 tends to rise in the last days of December and the first days of January. I went through every year since 1950 to answer the questions people actually ask about it: how often it happens, how much it brings, whether it is real, and what a missed rally meant for the year after.
Key findings
- In the 7 trading days of the Santa Claus rally, the S&P 500 rose in 58 of 76 years since 1950, by 1.25% on average (median 1.2%). Any 7 trading days of the year brought 0.25% on average and rose 58% of the time.
- Over the full history, the pattern is real: random 7-day stretches almost never matched that record (about 1 in 5,000 tries). It has faded, though: +0.8% on average since 2000, +0.5% over the last 10 years, little more than any 7 trading days (+0.4%).
- It missed in 2023, 2024 and 2025, the first three misses in a row since at least 1950. All three were small: −0.9%, −0.5% and −0.1%.
- “If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall” mostly did not hold: after a miss, the S&P 500 rose over the rest of the year in 13 of 17 cases, by 8.2% on average (after a rally: 9.1%). It did precede the bear markets of 1969, 2000 and 2008.
- The 2026 window runs from 24 December 2026 to 5 January 2027. Since the end of October, the S&P 500 is up 0.2%, while the average season was at +1.1% by this date.
What is the Santa Claus rally, and when is it in 2026?
The usual definition comes from Yale Hirsch, who described the pattern in the Stock Trader’s Almanac in 1972: the last five trading days of December plus the first two trading days of January, seven trading days in total. The return is measured from the close of the trading day before the window to the close of the second trading day of January.
In 2026, Christmas Day and New Year’s Day both fall on a Friday, so the window is:
The seven trading days are 24, 28, 29, 30 and 31 December and 4 and 5 January. 24 December is a half day on the NYSE. Many people use “Santa Claus rally” more loosely for any rise in December, or for the whole stretch from November to January. This page covers both: the strict seven days first, then the wider season from November to February.
How often does the Santa Claus rally happen?
In 58 of 76 years since 1950, about 3 years in 4. There is no Santa Claus rally every year: it missed in 18 years.
The misses: 1955, 1966, 1968, 1977, 1979, 1981, 1984, 1990, 1992, 1993, 1999, 2004, 2007, 2014, 2015, 2023, 2024 and 2025. Most of them were small: 10 of the 18 lost less than 1.5%.
Misses used to come alone or in pairs (1992–93, 2014–15). The three in a row from 2023 to 2025 are a first in this data. The longest run of rallies lasted ten years, from 1956 to 1965, and the most recent one lasted seven, from 2016 to 2022.
Average return of the Santa Claus rally
+1.25% on average in seven trading days, +1.2% in the median year, about five times what an ordinary stretch of seven trading days brought.
| S&P 500, 1950–2025 | Average | Median | Up |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Claus rally window (7 trading days) | +1.25% | +1.21% | 58 of 76 (76%) |
| Any 7 trading days of the year | +0.25% | +0.41% | 58% |
| Any single trading day | +0.04% | 53% |
- In a good year the window brought +2.1% on average. It gained more than 1% in 43 years and more than 2% in 21.
- In a bad year it lost 1.5% on average. Only 6 of the 76 windows lost more than 2%.
- Best: 2008 (+7.4%), 1974 (+7.2%), 1973 (+6.7%), 2000 (+5.7%) and 1991 (+5.7%). The biggest gains came in bear markets, as sharp rebounds from deep lows.
- Worst: 1999 (−4.0%), 1990 (−3.0%), 2014 (−3.0%), 2007 (−2.5%) and 2015 (−2.3%).
The median is almost as high as the average, so the result is not carried by a few big years. Without the four best and four worst windows, the average is still +1.2%.
Is the Santa Claus rally real, or has it faded?
Over 76 years, yes: it is far too consistent to be luck. Since 2000, and especially over the last 10 to 20 years, it has become much weaker, and the recent record could just as well be chance.
To check whether the Santa Claus rally is more than luck, I drew one random seven-day stretch from each of the 76 years and repeated this 20,000 times. A random set like that averaged +0.25% and rose in 58% of the years. Only 4 of the 20,000 random sets reached an average of +1.25%, and only 16 reached 58 positive years out of 76. Chance alone does not explain the full record.
Split into periods, the effect weakens over time:
| Period | Santa window | Up | Any 7 days | Luck as good |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1950–1971 | +1.48% | 19 of 22 | +0.25% | about 1 in 650 |
| 1972–1999 | +1.47% | 20 of 28 | +0.29% | about 1 in 160 |
| 2000–2025 | +0.80% | 19 of 26 | +0.21% | about 1 in 7 |
| 2006–2025 (last 20) | +0.55% | 14 of 20 | +0.27% | about 1 in 3 |
| 2016–2025 (last 10) | +0.48% | 7 of 10 | +0.38% | about 1 in 2 |
Averages. “Luck as good”: how often one random seven-day stretch per year matched the Santa window’s average over the same years (20,000 tries). 1950–1971 is before Hirsch named the pattern.
The table shows three things:
- Publishing the pattern did not weaken it: the average gain was just as large in the 28 years after Hirsch wrote about it in 1972 as in the 22 years before.
- After 2000 the window still rose in about 7 of 10 years, but the average gain fell by about half. Over the last ten years it brought +0.5%, against +0.4% for an ordinary seven days.
- The misses of 2023 to 2025 fit this: they were small losses in a window that no longer stands out much.
Ten or twenty years are too few to say the effect is gone, but anyone counting on it should look at the recent numbers rather than the long-run +1.25%.
Day by day: where the gains come from
Every day of the window was above the average day. The strongest were the fourth-to-last trading day of December (+0.28% on average, up in 67% of years) and the second trading day of January (+0.32%, also up in 67%). Right after the window, the third to sixth trading days of January were below average. Hirsch picked the seven days by looking at the data, so part of this sharp edge is how the window was chosen.
The wider pattern is a strong second half of December:
| S&P 500, 1950–2025 | Average | Median | Up |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 to 15 December | +0.08% | +0.47% | 44 of 76 (58%) |
| 16 to 31 December | +1.33% | +1.13% | 59 of 76 (78%) |
Almost all of December’s gain came in its second half. The first half was as good as a coin flip.
If Santa Claus fails to call: does a missed rally mean a bad year?
Hirsch’s rhyme says “If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.” The table shows what followed the 17 misses whose next year is complete, measured from the last day of the window, so the window itself is not counted again:
| From the end of the window to | After a miss (17) | After a rally (58) |
|---|---|---|
| the end of January, average | +1.3% | +0.4% |
| the end of March, average | +1.8% | +1.5% |
| the end of the year, average | +8.2% | +9.1% |
| the end of the year, median | +7.4% | +11.3% |
| the end of the year, up | 13 of 17 (76%) | 41 of 58 (71%) |
| a fall of 10% or more at some point in the year | 4 of 17 (24%) | 22 of 58 (38%) |
After a miss, the rest of the year was a little weaker in the median, but rose just as often, and deep falls were not more common. The difference is well within what chance can produce with 17 cases.
The rhyme probably sticks because it was right three times when it mattered: the window failed before the bear markets of 1969 (−11% that year), 2000 (−10%, the start of the dot-com crash) and 2008 (−38%, the financial crisis). It also failed before strong years like 1980 (+26%), 1985 (+26%), 1991 (+26%) and 2024 (+23%). And a rally did not protect anyone: it came before 1974 (−30%), 2002 (−23%) and 2022 (−19%).
The most recent misses: after the 2023 miss, the S&P 500 gained 23% in 2024. After the 2024 miss, it fell more than 10% by April 2025, then ended 2025 up 16%.
The bigger picture: November to February
The average season climbed steadily through November and December and flattened out in February. By the end of December the S&P 500 was up 3.3% on average from the end of October, higher in 59 of 76 seasons. By the end of February it was up 4.4%, higher in 54 of 76.
| Month, 1950–2026 | Average | Median | Up | Rank of 12 (average) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| November | +1.86% | +2.03% | 70% | 1st |
| December | +1.41% | +1.41% | 72% | 3rd, most often up of all months |
| January | +1.08% | +1.56% | 61% | 5th |
| February | −0.04% | +0.27% | 53% | 11th, only September was weaker |
| All months | +0.75% | +1.00% | 61% |
November and December together are the more robust part of the season: up 3.3% on average against 1.5% for any two months, and still +2.7% (up in 19 of 26 years) since 2000, when the strict seven-day window weakened.
Where the 2026 season stands
From the close of 30 October 2026 (7,580) to 12 November (7,592), the S&P 500 is up 0.2%. On the same date, the average season stood at +1.1%, and the middle half of all seasons ranged from −0.3% to +2.6%: 52 of 76 seasons were further ahead. A slow start says little about the rally window, though:
- In the 23 seasons in which the S&P 500 was lower on 15 December than at the end of October, the Santa Claus rally still came in 17 (74%), about as often as after a strong autumn (41 of 53, 77%).
- After a weak autumn the window was even larger on average (+2.1% against +0.9%), mostly because of sharp rebounds in bear-market years such as 1973, 1974 and 2008.
Nasdaq, Russell 2000 and the Dow
The same seven days in other indices, over the years each index has existed in the data:
| Index | Years | Average | Median | Up | S&P 500, same years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq Composite | 1972–2025 | +1.60% | +1.50% | 39 of 54 | +1.15% |
| Russell 2000 (small caps) | 1988–2025 | +1.26% | +1.20% | 27 of 38 | +0.81% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 1992–2025 | +0.73% | +0.94% | 26 of 34 | +0.68% |
The Nasdaq and small caps gained a bit more than the S&P 500, as they usually move more in both directions. How often the window rose was about the same everywhere.
In midterm years
2026 is a midterm election year. In the 19 midterm years since 1950, the Santa Claus rally came 16 times (+1.4% on average), against 42 of 57 in the other years (+1.2%). November and December together rose 3.6% on average in midterm years and 3.2% in the others. With 19 cases, that is no real difference. For the bigger midterm pattern, see the S&P 500 over the presidential cycle.
What it means in practice
- For a long-term investor, the pattern changes nothing: seven days of +1% on average, less in recent years, are small next to what a year brings.
- As a trade, buying the S&P 500 on 23 December and selling on 5 January earned +1.25% on average since 1950, but only +0.5% over the last ten years, before costs and taxes, and it lost in about 1 year in 4 (up to −4%), which leaves a thin edge.
- A missed rally has not been a sell signal: after 17 misses, the rest of the year rose 13 times.
- A weak November has not stopped the rally: the window came just as often after a weak autumn.
- The broader season is the sturdier pattern: the second half of December, and November and December together, have been strong for longer and held up better since 2000 than the strict seven days.
Read these numbers as a base rate, not as a forecast: they describe what happened in 76 Decembers, each with its own rates, recessions and news.
History: every Santa Claus rally since 1950
The return of each window, and what followed from its last day to the end of January and to the end of the year.
All 76 years, 1950–2025
| Year | Window | Santa window | Then to end of Jan | Then to end of year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 24 Dec 2025 – 5 Jan 2026 | −0.11% | +0.5% | open |
| 2024 | 24 Dec 2024 – 3 Jan 2025 | −0.53% | +1.7% | +15.2% |
| 2023 | 22 Dec 2023 – 3 Jan 2024 | −0.88% | +3.0% | +25.0% |
| 2022 | 23 Dec 2022 – 4 Jan 2023 | +0.80% | +5.8% | +23.8% |
| 2021 | 27 Dec 2021 – 4 Jan 2022 | +1.43% | −5.8% | −19.9% |
| 2020 | 24 Dec 2020 – 5 Jan 2021 | +1.00% | −0.3% | +27.9% |
| 2019 | 24 Dec 2019 – 3 Jan 2020 | +0.34% | −0.3% | +16.1% |
| 2018 | 24 Dec 2018 – 3 Jan 2019 | +1.29% | +10.5% | +32.0% |
| 2017 | 22 Dec 2017 – 3 Jan 2018 | +1.06% | +4.1% | −7.6% |
| 2016 | 23 Dec 2016 – 4 Jan 2017 | +0.43% | +0.4% | +17.7% |
| 2015 | 24 Dec 2015 – 5 Jan 2016 | −2.30% | −3.8% | +11.0% |
| 2014 | 24 Dec 2014 – 5 Jan 2015 | −2.96% | −1.3% | +1.2% |
| 2013 | 24 Dec 2013 – 3 Jan 2014 | +0.18% | −2.7% | +12.4% |
| 2012 | 24 Dec 2012 – 3 Jan 2013 | +2.04% | +2.7% | +26.7% |
| 2011 | 23 Dec 2011 – 4 Jan 2012 | +1.86% | +2.7% | +11.7% |
| 2010 | 27 Dec 2010 – 4 Jan 2011 | +1.07% | +1.3% | −1.0% |
| 2009 | 24 Dec 2009 – 5 Jan 2010 | +1.42% | −5.5% | +10.7% |
| 2008 | 24 Dec 2008 – 5 Jan 2009 | +7.45% | −11.0% | +20.2% |
| 2007 | 24 Dec 2007 – 3 Jan 2008 | −2.51% | −4.7% | −37.6% |
| 2006 | 22 Dec 2006 – 4 Jan 2007 | +0.003% | +1.4% | +3.5% |
| 2005 | 23 Dec 2005 – 4 Jan 2006 | +0.42% | +0.5% | +11.4% |
| 2004 | 27 Dec 2004 – 4 Jan 2005 | −1.82% | −0.6% | +5.1% |
| 2003 | 24 Dec 2003 – 5 Jan 2004 | +2.39% | +0.8% | +8.0% |
| 2002 | 24 Dec 2002 – 3 Jan 2003 | +1.25% | −5.8% | +22.4% |
| 2001 | 24 Dec 2001 – 3 Jan 2002 | +1.78% | −3.0% | −24.5% |
| 2000 | 22 Dec 2000 – 3 Jan 2001 | +5.70% | +1.4% | −14.8% |
| 1999 | 27 Dec 1999 – 4 Jan 2000 | −4.04% | −0.4% | −5.7% |
| 1998 | 24 Dec 1998 – 5 Jan 1999 | +1.32% | +2.8% | +18.0% |
| 1997 | 24 Dec 1997 – 5 Jan 1998 | +4.04% | +0.3% | +25.8% |
| 1996 | 24 Dec 1996 – 3 Jan 1997 | +0.15% | +5.1% | +29.7% |
| 1995 | 22 Dec 1995 – 3 Jan 1996 | +1.77% | +2.4% | +19.2% |
| 1994 | 23 Dec 1994 – 4 Jan 1995 | +0.22% | +2.1% | +33.7% |
| 1993 | 27 Dec 1993 – 4 Jan 1994 | −0.10% | +3.2% | −1.6% |
| 1992 | 24 Dec 1992 – 5 Jan 1993 | −1.07% | +1.0% | +7.4% |
| 1991 | 24 Dec 1991 – 3 Jan 1992 | +5.68% | −2.5% | +3.9% |
| 1990 | 24 Dec 1990 – 3 Jan 1991 | −2.97% | +6.8% | +29.6% |
| 1989 | 22 Dec 1989 – 3 Jan 1990 | +4.05% | −8.3% | −8.0% |
| 1988 | 23 Dec 1988 – 4 Jan 1989 | +0.92% | +6.5% | +26.5% |
| 1987 | 24 Dec 1987 – 5 Jan 1988 | +2.16% | −0.6% | +7.4% |
| 1986 | 24 Dec 1986 – 5 Jan 1987 | +2.37% | +8.7% | −2.0% |
| 1985 | 24 Dec 1985 – 3 Jan 1986 | +1.11% | +0.4% | +14.8% |
| 1984 | 24 Dec 1984 – 3 Jan 1985 | −0.57% | +9.2% | +28.4% |
| 1983 | 23 Dec 1983 – 4 Jan 1984 | +1.99% | −2.0% | +0.3% |
| 1982 | 27 Dec 1982 – 4 Jan 1983 | +1.17% | +2.8% | +16.7% |
| 1981 | 24 Dec 1981 – 5 Jan 1982 | −1.85% | +0.3% | +17.2% |
| 1980 | 24 Dec 1980 – 5 Jan 1981 | +1.97% | −6.1% | −11.2% |
| 1979 | 24 Dec 1979 – 3 Jan 1980 | −2.20% | +8.5% | +29.0% |
| 1978 | 22 Dec 1978 – 3 Jan 1979 | +3.26% | +2.2% | +10.4% |
| 1977 | 23 Dec 1977 – 4 Jan 1978 | −0.30% | −4.6% | +2.8% |
| 1976 | 27 Dec 1976 – 4 Jan 1977 | +0.82% | −3.5% | −10.0% |
| 1975 | 24 Dec 1975 – 5 Jan 1976 | +4.34% | +8.9% | +16.1% |
| 1974 | 24 Dec 1974 – 3 Jan 1975 | +7.20% | +8.9% | +27.5% |
| 1973 | 24 Dec 1973 – 3 Jan 1974 | +6.69% | −3.2% | −31.3% |
| 1972 | 21 Dec 1972 – 3 Jan 1973 | +3.12% | −3.0% | −18.4% |
| 1971 | 27 Dec 1971 – 4 Jan 1972 | +1.34% | +1.8% | +15.6% |
| 1970 | 24 Dec 1970 – 5 Jan 1971 | +1.89% | +4.4% | +11.2% |
| 1969 | 24 Dec 1969 – 5 Jan 1970 | +3.58% | −9.0% | −1.4% |
| 1968 | 24 Dec 1968 – 3 Jan 1969 | −1.16% | −0.9% | −11.5% |
| 1967 | 22 Dec 1967 – 3 Jan 1968 | +0.30% | −3.6% | +8.6% |
| 1966 | 23 Dec 1966 – 4 Jan 1967 | −1.40% | +7.5% | +19.8% |
| 1965 | 27 Dec 1965 – 4 Jan 1966 | +0.08% | +0.7% | −12.9% |
| 1964 | 24 Dec 1964 – 5 Jan 1965 | +0.57% | +3.5% | +9.2% |
| 1963 | 24 Dec 1963 – 3 Jan 1964 | +2.29% | +2.0% | +12.3% |
| 1962 | 24 Dec 1962 – 3 Jan 1963 | +1.72% | +3.9% | +17.7% |
| 1961 | 22 Dec 1961 – 3 Jan 1962 | +0.38% | −3.2% | −11.3% |
| 1960 | 23 Dec 1960 – 4 Jan 1961 | +1.69% | +5.9% | +22.6% |
| 1959 | 24 Dec 1959 – 5 Jan 1960 | +2.43% | −7.9% | −3.8% |
| 1958 | 23 Dec 1958 – 5 Jan 1959 | +3.63% | −0.4% | +7.6% |
| 1957 | 24 Dec 1957 – 3 Jan 1958 | +3.52% | +2.0% | +35.1% |
| 1956 | 21 Dec 1956 – 3 Jan 1957 | +1.15% | −4.0% | −14.2% |
| 1955 | 23 Dec 1955 – 4 Jan 1956 | −0.90% | −2.6% | +3.7% |
| 1954 | 27 Dec 1954 – 4 Jan 1955 | +2.97% | +0.6% | +24.9% |
| 1953 | 24 Dec 1953 – 5 Jan 1954 | +1.66% | +3.9% | +43.3% |
| 1952 | 24 Dec 1952 – 5 Jan 1953 | +1.79% | −1.1% | −6.9% |
| 1951 | 24 Dec 1951 – 3 Jan 1952 | +1.57% | +1.1% | +11.3% |
| 1950 | 22 Dec 1950 – 3 Jan 1951 | +3.55% | +4.7% | +14.9% |
Year = the December of the window. The window ends in January of the following year, so “end of year” means the end of that following year.
Data and notes
- S&P 500 price index (^GSPC) from Yahoo Finance, daily closes since 1950, data through 12 November 2026. Price index without dividends. With dividends, all returns would be a little higher. Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC), Russell 2000 (^RUT) and Dow Jones (^DJI) from the same source, from the first full year available there.
- Santa Claus rally window: the last five trading days of December and the first two of January, measured from the close of the trading day before the window to the close of the second trading day of January. 76 complete windows, December 1950 to January 2026. Until 1952 the NYSE also traded on Saturdays, but the data source has weekday closes only.
- “Any 7 trading days”: all overlapping seven-day stretches from January 1950 to February 2026. Random check: one random seven-day stretch per year (from the same calendar years as the windows), 20,000 repetitions.
- “What followed” is measured from the close of the last day of the window. “A fall of 10% or more”: the lowest close of the rest of the year at least 10% below that close. 2025 is not counted there, as 2026 is not over.
- Season chart and months: November to February by calendar day from the last close of October. Monthly returns from month-end closes, January 1950 to February 2026.
- All numbers count what happened in the past. They are not probabilities for the future, not forecasts and not financial advice.